Percentages Not in Cubs’ or White Sox’ Favor

May 12, 2014 @ admin → No Comments

Monday meanderings: Something says Chicago Cubs and White Sox fans likely will agree on one thing this season: They are not fans of FanGraphs.com. The statistical analysis department at ElliottHarris.com has calculated that a great number of aforementioned fans will be distraught to learn neither club has much of a chance of reaching the postseason — based on the more sophisticated number crunching at FanGraphs.com. The site gives the Sox a 3.3 percent chance of reaching the postseason and the Cubs 0.4.

Well, Playboy’s Kayla Collins could take a person’s mind off baseball. Credit: Josh Ryan

* On the bright (?) side for the Cubs, FanGraphs does predict the team will lose a mere 94 games. The Sox are slated to lose 87 games and finish ahead of only Minnesota in the American League Central. The Cubs are predicted to have the worst record in the National League.

* If it’s any consolation to Cubs fans (and the guess here is that it is not), the Cubs (12-24) are on pace for a 54-108 season. So better days (theoretically), say the folks at FanGraphs, are ahead for the Cubs. “Better” being a relative term.

* The Cubs’ opponent for the next four days is St. Louis at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals are calculated to win the National League Central with 85 victories. Of course, these numbers are subject to change. Hey, a hot streak by the Cubs and the crystal ball (or whatever they use at FanGraphs) conceivably could say the Cubs will loser fewer than 90 games. We’ll try to remember to let you know when that happens — this season (not this decade).

* The Sox lost Sunday 5-1 at home to the National League team with the third-worst postseason possibilities (2.9 percent), the Arizona Diamondbacks. On the bright side for the Sox, there was … uh … Moises Sierra’s first home run. Yep, that pretty much was it.

* The Cubs lost 5-2 to the Braves in Atlanta. And FanGraphs sees Atlanta as having a 66.9 percent chance of reaching the postseason. The percentages would be much better, if the Braves played the Cubs all the time. Well, based on the teams’ first three meetings, all Atlanta victories.

* On the bright side for the Cubs, second baseman Darwin Barney went 2-for-4 to raise his batting average to .153. Barney’s listed playing weight is 185. Yes, “bright” can be a relative term.

* Meanwhile, the Super Bowl-bound (don’t ask which season, please) Chicago Bears signed a few free agents to augment their draft picks. Included was former Northern Illinois University quarterback Jordan Lynch, who is expected to come to camp as a running back. Does Lynch have a chance to being an NFL success? Well, he could be the next Eric Crouch, if that means anything to anyone who remembers the former Nebraska quarterback.

* Incredibly in the NFL draft and subsequent signings of college free agents, all NFL teams were thrilled with their new training-camp fodder. Each and every team was surprised the picks they selected in the draft were still available when it was its time to choose. Each and every team was amazed at the quality of free agents agreeing to come to camp. Which will make seeing 90 percent or more of these athletes axed in training camp totally mind-boggling. OK, not that. But it is amazing to see media merely relay the message the teams want to send their fans. Of course, for the media to do more than that might require some serious scrutiny; and who has time for that these days when you have social media awaiting your next message informing the world that someone just burped.

***

Here is where to go for a daily dose of non-gratuitous video (thanks to the exhilarating efforts of the editorial and video departments at ElliottHarris.com and their dazzling definition of “gratuitous”):